The Man, The Myth, and The Magic

The Man, The Myth, and The Magic

     Id like to start by saying that I am not a Tebowist. I do not participate in the act of Tebowing, nor was I one of the 94 million people to search John 3:16 after Tebow sported the numbers on his eye black during the 2009 BCS National Championship. But on the other hand, I wouldn’t say I have a problem with him. I recognize that he has “it”. Whatever “it” is, be it his leadership skills, his fearless broadcasting of his faith or the fact that he is one of the greatest athletes (notice I said athletes, not quarterbacks) ever to play the game, that man is in no short supply of “it”. These attributes mesmerize everybody and your mother and, for a while there, it seemed nothing could get Tebowists out of their warm stupor. In essence, Tebow was (and still is) a drug. And that’s what the news feeds on; this drug that evoked the controversy of the year in the sports world.

     Being a news icon is no new gig for Tebow: he has been talked about since he was a senior in high school. His recruiting profile describes him as “[having] a strong arm and above average speed and elusiveness…shows positive leadership ability…” (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Tim-Tebow-31436) Attributes like this got him recruited to the acclaimed football powerhouse, University of Florida, where the coaches had nothing but positive things to say about their new quarterback. Even ESPN college analysis’s loved him, saying that he was “revolutionizing the position…as a dual threat quarterback” (http://web.archive.org/web/20071111084832/http://www.thestate.com/sports/story/225436.html) A quarterback who can run and who can throw. And Tebow did nothing to disappoint his fans. He first helped the Gators win the national championship during the 2006 college football season. The next year, he was named the Gators' starting quarterback during which he became the first college sophomore to win the Heisman Trophy. In ’08, Tebow led Florida to a 13-1 record and its second national championship in three years, and was named the offensive MVP of the national championship game. The Gators again went 13–1 in 2009, Tebow's senior year. At the conclusion of his college career, he held the Southeastern Conference’s all-time records in both career passing efficiency and total rushing touchdowns, appearing second and tenth (respectively) in the NCAA record book in these categories. (http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/2011/FBS.pdf)

     Fast forward a couple years, and Tebow is about to start his first NFL game for the Denver Broncos. Nobody knows what to expect. He has been both raved about and criticized for weeks before this deciding day. Down 15 points with less than 3 minutes to go, it seemed all hope was lost. But then, by a stroke of God, or so it would appear, Tebow rallied the Broncos to an 18-15 OT win against the Miami Dolphins, ironically in the same stadium that he won a High School title in 2005 and a College National Championship in 2008, silencing critics and starting an era of what would be hence fourth known as Tebow Time. The ensuing news stories were a mix of joy, disbelief, and at the very least, acknowledgement of what this young quarterback had just accomplished. Most of the post game analyses noted the poor late game performance of the Dolphins mixed with strokes of luck for the Broncos as opposed to skill coming from Tebow. CBS’ Bill Cowher says, “He has limitations but ultimately can become a legitimate quarterback. But they won’t win a championship with him.” They give him credit…but not that much credit. (http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/10/21/2464362/tebow-mania-upstaging-miami-dolphins.html) Tebow went on to lead the Denver Broncos to an 8-8 season, and another come-from-behind OT win in his first ever playoff appearance against the powerhouse Pittsburgh Steelers. Not bad for a rookie.

     When I searched “Tim Tebow” on Google, an astonishing 91,600,000 results appeared at my disposal. Now I cant imagine all of these are entire articles about America’s new golden boy, but even so, he is at least referenced that many times. As a point of comparison, when searching for David Beckham, arguably the worlds most popular soccer player, a mere 75,000,000 results came up, despite the fact that soccer has a significantly larger worldwide following.

     I think there is essentially two ways that the news analyzes Tim Tebow. One is with logos, the other with pathos.  The use of logos is generally on the negative side, seeing as statistically, he really isn’t that great of a quarterback. (In his defense, this statement is comparing him to all current quarterbacks, including the many to-be hall of famers. His first year stats, compared to stats of even the best during their first season is respectable) According to a telecast of SportsCenter, Tebow had the lowest quarterback rating of all eligible players in the position. I wouldn’t generally associate someone with this ranking as being a winning quarterback, much less the most popular athlete in the America. (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2012/01/poll-tim-tebow-most-popular.html)

The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective is a “student-run organization at Harvard College dedicated to the quantitative analysis of sports strategy and management.” After all they hype on this young quarterback, they decided to figure out statistically how he should be doing. The article turned out to essentially augment the skepticism of Tebow’s success. According to their calculations, “for the last 5 weeks, [during which Tebow led the Broncos to a record of 4-1], taking into account strength of opponent and location of the game, the Broncos would have been expected to win 1.9 games over that 5 game stretch.” So, what, did he just pull the other 2.1 wins out of mid-air? The article uses the terms EPA and WPA, or Expected Points Added and Win Probability Added, respectively. They go on to say

Tebow [compared to Kyle Orton] has a much worse EPA – meaning that he has objectively produced worse results over all of his plays – but a significantly better (though still negative) WPA – meaning that his plays have contributed more to the chances of his team winning. While Tebow’s plays have produced much fewer expected points than Orton’s, Tebow’s positive plays have come at crucial points in the game, when they have a much larger impact on the final result.

Unfortunately for Broncos fans, however, “the vast majority of players who started their careers with similar characteristics (a relatively high WPA given their EPA) eventually regressed towards the mean and saw their numbers come in line with expectations” (http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/26/a-statistical-analysis-of-the-miracles-of-tim-tebow) So what does this mean? The news coverage that utilizes logos as the primary way to analyze Tebow seem to suggest that he is really no more than a lucky, albeit mediocre quarterback. But this isn’t what brought Tebow into the spotlight, and it’s definitely not what kept him there.

     The stories using pathos to analyze the star are much more interesting and revealing about how he came to be the most compelling story in sports. Chuck Klosterman, a contributing author to the widely read blog Grantland, explains the unorthodox divide between those who like him vs. dislike him most eloquently. In this, he notes that the people who dislike him, dislike him essentially because he is “too good of a person”. The people who like him like him because he “succeeds at his job while being uniquely unskilled at its traditional requirements.” For the life of this story, Tebow has never been a great passer. And everybody from SportsCenter to church blogs has acknowledged that. But, like I said earlier, he has “it.” Tebow is more than football. He has a knack for saying just the right things at just the right times. Yes, it’s intertwined by his arguably obnoxious references to his “lord and savior Jesus Christ”, but maybe, as much as we moan and gripe about him shoving his faith down everyone’s throats, we have a subconscious appreciation for his antics.

The crux here, the issue driving this whole "Tebow Thing," is the matter of faith. It's the ongoing choice between embracing a warm feeling that makes no sense or a cold pragmatism that's probably true. And with Tebow, that illogical warm feeling keeps working out. It pays off. The upside to secular thinking is that — in theory — your skepticism will prove correct. Your rightness might be emotionally unsatisfying, but it confirms a stable understanding of the universe. Sports fans who love statistics fall into this camp. People who reject cognitive dissonance build this camp and find the firewood. But Tebow wrecks all that, because he makes blind faith a viable option. His faith in God, his followers' faith in him — it all defies modernity. This is why people care so much. He is making people wonder if they should try to believe things they don't actually believe. (http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7319858/the-people-hate-tim-tebow)

Is it this that landed Tebow an entire hour long special on SportsCenter, a very rare occurrence that puts him in a class with the likes of LeBron James and his “decision?” Maybe. And for those of us who don’t shut the door on Tebow because we are “annoyed” by all the talk about him, columnist Rick Reilly sums up the feelings of the fans quite well.

So that's it. I've given up giving up on him. I'm a 100 percent believer. Not in his arm. Not in his skills. I believe in his heart, his there-will-definitely-be-a-pony-under-the-tree optimism, the way his love pours into people, right up to their eyeballs, until they believe they can master the hopeless comeback, too."

(http://espn.go.com/espn/story/_/id/7455943/believing-tim-tebow)